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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.835

-1.1%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: w molloy who wrote (3273)	1/15/2000 11:11:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (7) of 34857

According to the GPRS engineers I've discussed this matter with, no GSM operator will upgrade directly to third generation technology. Current GSM networks will adopt packet-switch technology as the first phase of mobile data upgrades. Then - if they choose to adopt EDGE, the existence of GPRS will allow them to achieve four times higher data speeds than by using EDGE with just the currently existing circuit-switch technology. Maybe EDGE will become big and maybe not - but since GPRS is the necessary first step to gain full benefits of EDGE, all operators who intend to go with EDGE will probably first implement GPRS. How is GPRS a path to W-CDMA? I don't think you can slap W-CDMA on GSM networks if you still have only the old circuit-switch technology in place. You need to have GSM networks using IP before you can start implementing W-CDMA. This is the way Nokia and Ericsson planned the migration and this is the route mobile operators are clearly following. GPRS does not become obsolete when EDGE and possibly W-CDMA arrive. It forms the foundation for further upgrades. It's planned to become "immersed" in the future upgrades - not to be displaced by them. Since Nokia and Ericsson specifically formulated W-CDMA to become one option in a link of data upgrades - where does this "I don't believe that W-CDMA exists" skepticism stem from? I spent four hours in the Nokia presentation at Geneve Telecom listening to the mind-numbing GPRS - EDGE - W-CDMA scheme. Does anyone really believe that Nokia is intentionally deceiving the investment community by making this plan a key plank in their infrastructure strategy if it isn't feasible? Why are mobile operators playing along if they don't believe in Nokia's vision of mobile data upgrades? I may be too simple to follow the technological details of the GPRS - W-CDMA route - but the people making purchasing decisions at Mannesmann or Vodafone are professionals. They have evaluated GPRS and decided to invest in it - at a cost of up to 40% of the original GSM network investment. Those investment decisions are the judge and jury on Nokia's strategy of prioritizing GPRS. They would not have been made if 3G would really make GPRS obsolete in 2 years. Over 66% of Americans believe in angels and more than 15% of them believe in alien abductions involving kinky medical experimentation (Gallup Poll). Yet some people on this thread refuse to believe in the existence of W-CDMA and the importance of GPRS despite the massive investment made by mobile operators. Of course this could be traced back to the notorious New Zealand effect. In my opinion, any conspiracy theory disputing the importance of GPRS and W-CDMA would need collusion from NTT-DoCoMo and 50 other mobile operators. Eric; I'll get back to BAM on a later date. I need a drink or seven right now. Tero

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