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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (45610)1/15/2000 12:00:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
GZ,

>>with higher rates, their cost of doing business will become more expensive and will start to cut into their promise of future profits.....<<

This will be particularly true of the New AOL, a leader up until Recently. Now saddled to a debt burdened and aging conglomerate, they have funked out with this purchase.

But the other 149 technology companies leading the Nasdaq are being bought for the future potential of Internet earnings and world wide expansion of the same. The current push in these Indexes will not be stopped by Greenspan, maybe just burped. <<smile>> The direction of these markets are difficult to understand....., unless your an under 30 money manager.

To me the key is held by Japan and ECU....should these economies continue rebounding from the past currency and economic problems, there will be substantial pressures to commodity prices and to balances of currencies, leading to protectionist noise.

The Fed is at a pivot point here at 6.5% and will make a mistake in raising rates to fast.

If the current world balance of currencies remains the same after these next Fed increases, 2000 should be a repeat of 1999 after the next 6 months have passed. I'm looking for modest problems for 4-6 months and strong return of the markets.

What happened last week on the Indexes appears technically very damaging and a prelude to some early problems. However this last batch of Inside Weeks looks to be Bullish.

Chip
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