All,
I have been an Intercell shareholder since 1995. I still own 30,000 shares at a basis of around $2. This company has a long and sordid history which, until recently, did not appear to be heading in a more positive direction. This post is not going to make many of you happy, but I want to make sure everyone is looking at this opportunity from all angles.
In the old days, when INCE owned the patent rights to a shielded antenna technology, it traded as high as $5 3/4. This performance was primarily based on technology patents, the aggressive IR practices of the company, and the seemingly well-intentioned executives that were in charge (Paul Metzinger being one of them) In addition, INCE also owned the right to the Particle Interconnect (PI) technology, which is now the major asset owned by NPCT. I sold much of my INCE position when a revenue proforma that was given to me by the INCE IR department turned out to be a pipedream. Because these folks from the IR department were my friends, and I thought I could trust them, I bought it back at around $2 and watched it go all the way down to less than a penny. Now it appears to have resurrected itself (for the time being).
I have some questions and comments:
1 - Mr. Metzinger saying he is going to turn Intercell into a "dom com" company means nothing. I want to know what he's selling. What's his business plan? What is his market positioning? Where is he getting the captial (Dilutive equity vehicles seem to be his favorite choice)? Who is he selling to? Where is his revenue proforma? Until these things materialize, anyone who buys INCE stock based on this empty promise is a fool.
2 - Back in the old days, there was another "holding" company (EDVC) that owned roughly 35% of INCE. This was a strikingly similar scenario to what you are seeing now with INCE as a shell with shares in NPCT. As far as I remember these shareholders were left with nothing when Terry Neild (the CEO of INCE at the time) spun off the antenna technology into a separate company and handed the Particle Interconnect technology to Paul. There is precedent here that we need to be wary of. I have seen the value of these types of holding companies vanish overnight.
3 - Where is the revenue proforma of NPCT? I remember seeing signed contracts by big name wafer and chip players (like Amkor) that were supposedly interested in small quantities of the PI technology for testing. What ever happened to these deals?
4 - Does NPCT have a website that positions/sells their offerings to actual customers, or does it have a website that appears to be more focused on investor relations? I have learned that companies that maintain "hype sites" are ALWAYS fraudulent in their operations and are simply trying to drive the price of their stock higher so that they can make a few million bucks off of uneducated investors before closing the doors, moving the assets to another shell, letting the dust settle and starting all over again.
5 - I've heard the same story about "skipping the NASD small cap market and going straight to the NASD national market". This never happended before and it is unlikely to happen now. A company must trade over $5 for several months before it can move to the NASDAQ market. The financing "partners" that Metzinger and company have utilized over the years never let this happen. They short the stock, driving the price down, and when the next liquidity event takes place, they grab an ever bigger percentage of the total float (because they are guaranteed a certain capitalization that is tied directly to the stock price - - the lower the price at the time of the event, the more shares the investors get to make them whole). Then they cover their shorts, drive the price back up and sell the shares they just obtained from the liquidity event. In addition, a company would need to have a revenue stream, with real customers who pay their bills.
Unfortunately I have many, many more stories about the unethical history of this company's lineage that I won't share here. To close, I trusted them to make INCE viable, and lost more than a hundred thousand dollars in the process. Do I believe an individual investor can make money in this game? Definitely. Just buy your shares low, and sell half of them at each doubling of value. You never know when management is going to close their doors, move the assets and the bottom is going to drop out of the stock. The rule is to take money off the table a little at a time. |
