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Technology Stocks : Novellus
NVLS 2.400+2.1%Jul 24 5:00 PM EST
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To: robert b furman who wrote (2586)1/15/2000 1:50:00 PM
From: LemurHouse  Read Replies (1) of 3813
 
Bob, you are articulating a trader's point of view. I think most investors (as opposed to traders) see the situation somewhat differently.

In the fall of '98, when this entire sector was in the dumps, I put all of the (uncommitted) money I had into a small number of semi-equip companies which I already owned and was familiar with. At that time, I thought about taking a heavily margined position in NVLS, because I believed the cycle was turning and that it wouldn't be long until we were where we are now. I didn't anticipate any specific price, just that it would be up "a lot." That would have been the first very heavy use of margin that I would have ever used, and I ultimately decided not to. I wish I had. I still have a good stake in NVLS, but not as much as I would have if I'd been more confident of my long term view.

The inevitable minor corrections aside, I think that this stock, and this sector has a ways to run yet before we see serious price declines which will come when the market starts discounting the next semi-equip biz cycle.

I agree that the "mental adjustment" and picking of tops and bottoms which you refer to is extremely difficult. I certainly can't do it.

FWIW,

Andy
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