Another view....
Bert Dohmen's Weekly Hotline
January 14, 2000
(http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/DohmenHotline.html)
"ABBREVIATED VERSION"
Substantial portions deleted in fairness to paying customers.
It was another extremely volatile and exciting week in the markets. The good news is that the market ended on a very firm tone, and the outlook is pleasant over the near term. The Dow Jones Industrials soared to a new record high
gaining 200 points for the week, closing at 11,722. The NASDAQ Composite gained a nice 181 points. That's great action, but some of the technicals are raising the caution flag.
Most significant this week was evidence of benign inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) both showed a 0.2% gain in December. The core rate was 0.1% for each index. That's better than general expectations. It certainly proves once again that the old, worn out inflation statements from Fed board members, who are trying to excuse their unnecessary interest rate hikes, are ill conceived.
Even Fed Chairman Greenspan's speech Thursday night was ignored by the markets on Friday. He warned at length about a rising stock market making people wealthier which will eventually produce inflation. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve has lost all credibility. Amazingly, even many economists are now starting to say that the Fed is on the wrong path.
Mr. Greenspan's new theory about the "wealth effect" assumes that there is a limit to supply, and that increasing demand will cause price pressures. Are Mr. Greenspan's speeches written by someone else? I cannot believe that he
thinks we are reaching supply limits. In China alone there are over 1.2 billion people who are willing to supply us with whatever we want, at low prices. Then you have several hundred million more people in the rest of Asia. The gentlemen at the Fed just don't understand the real world. A truckload of economic statistics is not as good as one ounce of insight.
Last week I said that the Fed is becoming irrelevant to investors. Everyone knows that the Fed will continue to raise rates. But smart investors also know that as long as the availability of money is not restricted, the economy, and therefore the stock market, will be okay. In the late 1970's, this type of environment caused interest rates to triple, to a prime rate of 21 %, before we finally had a bear market in stocks. Eventually higher interest rates will produce what the Federal Reserve is trying to prevent, namely inflation. But they don't realize it.
I recommend staying 100% invested. One of my favorite areas is still biotechnology. They may even replace the internet stocks as the hottest sector of the market.
I wish you a wonderful long weekend.
Bert Dohmem
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Another perspective staying 100% invested!
EKS |
