Bill Wexler's Dog Pound Message Board

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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound

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To: Graeme Smith who wrote (6110)	1/15/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) of 10293

Not boring by any means. I am just astounded at the number of individuals on SI who believe they can forecast huge seismic changes in market trends that are overlooked not only by all the market experts and commentators, but by the thousands of traders and many thousands of investors whose actions actually constitute the market we know today. You are right and all of them are wrong? That's the part I have a hard time swallowing. Regression to a statistical historical mean could be totally statistically flawed for all you know. I am just saying I wouldn't bank on it in the face of a ton of people going the other way for years on end despite all these facts that you deem obvious and inevitable. Did you ever consider that the mountain of actions to the contrary tend to invalidate your assumptions? The argument I always hear is that the bubble MUST pop one day. Who cares if it hasn't burst yet - like all good economists, we simply ASSUME that it has to happen. That is why economists aren't allowed to manage real economic activities.

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