The Internet of the future--what will it look like? From today's LA times (note the TIVO mention):
<<Is it really a big deal that mighty forces of industry are working to give consumers access to high-speed, greater-capacity Internet services?
Yes. It was the driving force behind the America Online-Time Warner merger announcement. It was also the reason Bill Gates said he is stepping aside as Microsoft chief executive, to devote himself to developing the "next-generation Internet."
Greater Internet, called broadband for the scope of its two-way communication capacity, will have a profound impact on medicine, education, retailing, finance, everyday lives.
For insight into what it will be and who will benefit, let's look at users of broadband Internet today -- major companies in business and industry.
Enovia Corp., a subsidiary of Dassault Systemes of France with links to IBM, sells a Digital Enterprise package of Internet-connected computer software programs to makers of cars and airplanes. The Enovia package manages a project, coordinating the work of a prime manufacturer and five or six subcontractors. It moves parts and sub-assemblies while keeping every worker informed of each part and seamlessly bringing the finished product together.
With Enovia and a computer-design program called Catia, a manufacturer can stress-test every part, joint and configuration. Computerized models can be constructed that eliminate the need for expensive prototypes. Vehicle models can be changed quickly because all participants in the manufacturing process are in constant communication.
Home-communication whiz
Enovia, based in Charlotte, N.C., is involved in $1 billion worth of projects for Boeing, DaimlerChrysler, British Aerospace, Black & Decker and other firms. The Enovia enterprise package is the heart of Dassault Systemes, a growing $500-million company.
What does this portend for consumers?
Think of the power of the communication system that can coordinate such work, then apply that power to an Internet-connected two-way communications device in the home.
In medicine, that would make possible nearly a full physical examination -- complete with blood tests, the equivalent of a CAT-scan performed with the same kind of sensors that today test the properties of aircraft parts -- and a two-way consultation with a physician.
In education, learning at home through lectures and communication with teachers individually will be taken for granted.
In retailing, consumers will have a personal shopping environment with the ability to "test" garments and products.
What technology allows such wonders? Speed, memory and storage -- called bandwidth. Available bandwidth is growing rapidly as fiber-optic cables with almost infinite capacity for transmitting information are installed everywhere.
Equipment in homes will have to improve to take advantage of that improved infrastructure. A typical computer modem today -- 28.8 thousand computer bits per second -- can download a 3.5-minute video clip in 46 minutes. A 100-million-bit-per-second modem, available in industry, can do the job in seven seconds. Gigahertz systems -- 1 billion cycles per second -- plus processors that are coming within the next five years will allow feature films to be downloaded in real time.
Merger signals next plateau
The reason the AOL-Time Warner announcement aroused such excitement is that it represents high-tech industry trying to move to the next generation of the Internet. Time Warner is spending to enable its cable systems to carry two-way Internet traffic to its 13 million customers.
AOL could bring its 20 million customers plus Time Warner's to the next stage in which the Internet system is always "on," able to receive and send messages and check personal information through portable phones or computer-TV devices in the home.
AOL wants to be the portal consumers go through to get their e-mail, phone calls and other information.
But competition will be intense. Microsoft is going to introduce a new Internet system this spring with such services as "voice-enabled chat." That's another name for phone service on the Internet.
Who will win the battle for the consumer Internet? Too early to tell, says Geoffrey Yang, partner in Redpoint Ventures, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm. Yang sees the consumer Internet developing gradually. Consumers will enjoy improved versions of services they have today. Personal finance information will be constant and easier to use. TiVo, a company with a set-top box for recording programming, will have a role in the next generation.
Meanwhile, away from the fanfare, industry the world over works ever more efficiently because of the Internet. That's a big deal.>>
By James Flanigan
chron.com |
