Jon Joseph is a smart fellow. Right now, he's drawing a lot of fire because he has focused on a set of data that suggests (to him) that DRAM growth will slow. He's the first analyst to take this particular view. The world tends to always shoot the first messenger.
Dataquest, on the other hand, has studied the global figures and concluded that there isn't enough new capacity coming on stream this year to support growing DRAM demand created by increasing PC demand, greater memory requirements of W2000, a recovering Asian economy, an increasing rate of spending on IT in Europe.
If Joseph is supported in his view in the weeks ahead, he'll be a hero. If not, he'll qualify for a dunce cap. Dataquest, on the other hand, is merely stating what is widely held by the majority of analysts. The fact that Dataquest reflects the majority view today doesn't mean that they are right.
I love the controversy. Although I consider myself an investor, I trade Micron daily because of its tremendous volatility. The controversy at the forefront, just a week before expiry, guarantees great volatility in the short week ahead. Enjoy it! Take advantage of it!
Good trading, Glen |
