(GATA News) 2 peas in a pod(Dutch Central Bank & BofE.) Also, Greenspan Knows.
Subj: Robert Chapman - MID JANUARY UPDATE
Date: 1/15/00 8:55:43 AM EST
From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com
Le Metropole members,
Robert Chapman has served his "MID JANUARY UPDATE" at The Man Ray Table.
"Contrary to accepted thinking the world's known reservoirs of oil and
natural gas are being drawn down much faster than had been anticipated,
leading many oil companies to reduce their estimates of future production
from existing fields. Significant discrepancies, between reported and
traceable inventories have occurred, leading us to believe that OPEC's
compliance with self-imposed production quotas, rather than being disciplined,
indicates the cartel's inability to produce much more than it has."
"... Gold - The Dutch Central Bank said, it sold three tons of gold in
the week between Christmas and New Years. They said their gold sales do
not breach the pact made by 15 European Central Banks. They, like the
British and Swiss, intend to sell gold. They'll dispose of 100 tons by
September as part of an overall plan to sell 300 tons over five years.
Dutch veracity may not be what it seems to be. There are those who
believe they have leased some of this gold to big gold producers who
were in trouble in October. They probably will now be subjected to the
same critical oversight that the BofE has been under from small gold
producers that believe the BofE may have been manipulating the market to
support some of the big gold producers who were short and were in
trouble. So far complainants have received little truth or satisfaction
from the BofE. We suspect much of this could come out in the wash as the
GATA lawsuit goes forward next month. Another gaping hole in this trail
of lies and conspiracy is the recently released ECB figures showing that
its gold reserves at the end of December were.....
The world that best describes these miscreatents is duplicitious.".....
"A conversation with John Templeton at Lyford Cay Golf Club 4 months ago
revealed he felt the market was topping out. His recent interview with
Ruykeyser related the same message. There will be no soft landing.
Greenspan missed the mark. You can't fight tighter monetary policy
especially with all the debt out there; margin, corporate, government,
personal and derivative risk. Maybe the rejection of the AOL/Time Warner
deal will be the catalyst.".....
[END]
Subj: David Tice - Only In Hindsight?
Date: 1/15/00 4:58:16 PM EST
From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com
Le Metropole members,
David Tice has served commentary
The Hemingway Table entitled, "Only In Hindsight?"
David Tice
The Prudent Bear Fund
mitchell501@bloomberg.net
January 14, 2000
Only In Hindsight?
Wild speculation and market dislocations returned with a vengeance.....
You know you are in a truly bizarre environment when CNBC's Maria Bartiromo
not only is the cover photo for USA Today, but also ventures into the art
of Fed watching ... we will part company with Maria and state our belief
that there are definite signs of an increasingly worried and determined
Federal Reserve Chairman. Although he sticks religiously with his optimistic
message regarding technology, he leaves little doubt that he is now troubled
by increasingly dangerous financial and economic imbalances.
Quoting from Greenspan's speech.....
As regular readers of our commentaries are well familiar, it is our
strongly held view that we are in the midst of.....
... Fed played in accommodating the fateful bubble. And, inarguably,
we have come to the point that it is reasonable to presume that he
recognizes that this is a bubble and that it is fostering ever more
dangerous distortions and excesses. We also presume that he understands
clearly that the risk of following the present course is now growing
exponentially, as recent egregious credit and speculative excesses have
set in motion self-feeding and truly extreme distortions to both the
financial system and real economy.....
... some of the keenest and most respected Fed watchers are as well noting
the significance of last night's speech. They are paying particular attention
to Greenspan's focus on rising imbalances including excessive demand spurred
by wealth effects from both the stock and real estate markets, a shrinking
labor pool, rising wages, unsustainable trade deficits, and excessive
borrowings and insufficient savings, to name a few. One prominent Fed watcher
stated specifically that it is clear that Greenspan knows all is not well.
Former Federal Reserve member Lyle Gramley stated on CNBC that if.....
... Gramley also made a most cogent point that the inflation in this cycle
is not in the CPI, but has instead manifested in the ... through massive
... and ... economic maladjustments. As such, it sure looks like a few
serious analysts are coming to appreciate the overwhelming role that the.....
... For some time now, Greenspan and others have been hoping that the
overheated stock market and economy would cool on their own that higher
market interest rates would do the trick. It is now patently obvious
that this feeble policy of hoping has been a huge failure.
It is also patently clear that pricing pressures are developing outside
of just ... and ... prices. Today,.....
... see this as a big surprise and major issue going forward. It does
not take much imagination to see how continued.....
... Greenspan is certainly aware of these dynamics and the danger this
situation poses for interest rates, the dollar and financial and.....
Greenspan is also aware of rising wage pressures. Despite what we hear
from the Labor Department, people are.....
... while Greenspan trumpets the technology boom, it is.....
... packages is immense and unprecedented.
As such, there is little wonder as to why the credit market continues
to get hammered. For the week.....
Unappreciated by the vast majority of analysts, it is the ... lenders,
led by ..., that are the leading propagators of the credit bubble.
Unfortunately, all indications from ... and the others appear full steam
ahead! This is a problem.
Certainly, there are few signs of a tempering from the extreme.....
... This quickly digressed into a buyers' panic and dislocated market.
Moreover, this type of buying is done with borrowed money leading us
to suspect massive ... now underlies this stock market bubble.
This ... leverage has become endemic to the marketplace and has led
to market dislocations as well as money and credit excesses that
increasingly distort the entire financial system and economy.
With this in mind, we'll conclude with a quote from Thursday's Daily
Papers from Slate. The Washington Post business section observes that
due to a provision in the AOL employee stock plan, employees can be.....
... In other words, like the Time Warner deal. Which means, says the Post,
that a year from now, AOL's 12,100 employees will get to.....
Upshot: housing prices in Northern Virginia will go through the roof,
and there will be a lot of start-ups in the area, plus an influx of bankers,
money managers and...lawyers. Who said you will only know in hindsight
if you are in a bubble?
David Tice
The Prudent Bear Fund
mitchell501@bloomberg.net
[END]
All the best, Bill Murphy
Chairman, Gold Anti Trust Action (GATA) gata.org
Le Patron, Le Metropole Cafe lemetropolecafe.com |
