Jon.........food fight...?...........what do you think of these apples
A Wild, Profitable Ride, Again
Analysts Expect Another Year of Tech Stock Gains
The Associated Press
P A L O A L T O, Calif., Jan. 14 ? After a wild year that
left technology stock owners gleefully counting
their gains, top analysts say 2000 should be
just as profitable.
However, the bulls and bears agree that investors
that should expect some volatility during the next few
months.
?We?ll have a period of shakeout, and after that
shakeout everything will be great,? said analyst Chris
Nawn of Technology Crossover Ventures, a venture
capital firm.
The average technology stock fund rose 130 percent
last year as the Internet revolution boosted companies
selling everything from semiconductors to online
security.
Analysts who gathered late Wednesday for an annual
high-tech stock outlook meeting said corporate
predictions of continued booming business bode well for
high-tech stocks. Online providers are planning on
Internet traffic doubling every 100 days, computer
makers are planning to ship a record 140 million units
this year and biotech firms expect about 100 new drugs
to receive federal approval.
Not All Tech Stocks Alike
These types of outlooks make high-tech investors giddy.
?I put myself in the extremely foolish, if not bullish,
side of the market,? said Keith Benjamin, who was
Robertson Stephens? leading Internet analyst until he
joined Highland Venture Partners as an investor three
months ago.
Despite his optimism, Benjamin warned that all tech
stocks are not alike.
?Given the volatility of the market, it is increasingly
important to be selective,? he said.
Eric Upin, an e-commerce analyst with Robertson
Stephens, said companies in his sector ? including
VerticalNet and Internet Capital Group ? are particularly
well-positioned this year.
?Why are we convinced? We are talking about
rewiring the topology of many industries and about
addressable markets in the tens to hundreds of billions
of dollars,? he said. ?That?s why we have seen such
enthusiasm. And we feel it is still very early.?
California Technology Stock Letter analyst Michael
Murphy ? generally considered more skeptical than
most tech stock analysts ? joined his pundit colleagues
in their positive 2000 outlook.
?I think there could be a good buying opportunity
here in March or April, and I think it?s going to be a
pretty good year,? he said.
Murphy recommended that investors consider buying
shares of data management firm Informix, subscription
managers Rowe.com and the online trading company
ETrade Group.
Is Amazon.com Still a Tech Darling?
Murphy echoed analysts around the country when he
warned against Amazon.com, once a darling of
technology stock traders, but trading this week around
$64, almost half of its peak price of $113 last year.
?This company just never seems to make any
money,? he said, chastising Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos for
spending too much money on marketing.
Venture investor Nawn argued with Murphy about
this critique.
?You just don?t get it,? he said. ?They?re in
investment mode. In the end, all that marketing is going
to turn into real earnings.?
Nawn also recommended America Online, which
just announced a blockbuster merger with Time
Warner.
?It?s game over,? he said. ?They win. Nobody else can
ever win. They own the market.?
Fund managers said Internet stocks are a sensible
addition to a portfolio, but not a portfolio unto
themselves.
Paul Cook, lead portfolio manager for The Munder
NetNet Fund which has $2.7 billion in assets, recently
warned investors to limit their Internet shares to 10
percent.
?Frankly, much of the Internet?s promise is
unknown,? he said. |
