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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold
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To: Mad2 who wrote (2039)1/16/2000 9:52:00 AM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (1) of 5582
 
Nothing is new about the story behind Pleconaril. The only thing new is the publicity that it got late last week and this weekend. In the short term, I think this spells trouble for Viropharma's stock. It might gap on Tuesday's open, but it is probably a good short-term short sale, albeit a very risky one.

It is irresponsible, IMO, for Viropharma management to encourage or even condone the media hype surrounding Pleconaril as a "cure for the common cold". Give me a break! Pleconaril is no cure for the common cold and the hype is just suckering in investors on false hopes. Zicam isn't even a cure for the common cold. How can one call ANY drug that reduces the duration of symptoms of ANY illness from 14 days to 10 days "a cure"? The pros and cons of Pleconaril and Zicam have been discussed here for months. It isn't new and I don't see how it could possibly be bad for GUMM. Pleconaril might be a very good drug for viral meningitis, but I don't think that it will make a dent in the OTC cough and cold category.

Mad2: I would appreciate hearing your reasons for thinking that Pleconaril could be bad news for Zicam next cold season. Do you honestly think that a prescription drug that will cost about $50 could cause problems for the $3 billion OTC cough and cold remedy market? How would your answer be affected if the independent clinical study for Zicam proves that it reduces the duration of the common cold from 14 days to 2 to 4 days? How would your answer be affected if Zicam is proven to prevent common colds caused by the rhinovirus? Would Pleconaril be prescribed much for colds under these conditions? Do you think that insurance companies would pay for Pleconaril if an OTC product (Zicam) is available that is more effective than Pleconaril? Direct answers to these and other pertinent questions are more credible than innuendo.

Thanks,

Dan
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