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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp

SFTBY 81.06

-8.3%

Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (3310)	1/17/2000 12:01:00 AM
From: manohar kanuri	Read Replies (1) of 6018

Good move, Jay. Why own the farm and the trees when you can get the rights to just the coconuts, is what I always say. Or some such homely farming aphorism. I've been psyching myself into thinking that the only way to play this whole thing is to work on the assumption that it is a bubble that will unfold for several years. Or that free capital flows, free trade, manufacturing flexibilities and pre-emptive central banks have brought about changes in the inflation equations that are still to be properly understood. Not that inflation is dead, but that with so many boffins in so many places watching like hawks the nature of the game changes. A little like jello/jelly -- you press down in one place and it pops up elsewhere. A combination of factors will keep most commodity prices under downward pressure and another mix keeps wage rates in check. If the only inflation for the next few years is going to be assets prices (as the Dow powers on to 40k?) well why not enjoy the ride? Don't worry, be happy...... Will Greenspan, though? He seems to be making an explicit case for targeting the stock market as the source of economic friction. I think he's right. Sounds like a conflicted case of running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, but heck, I'm used to it! The only question I have left is - will markets collapse if rates hit 8% in the next 12-18 months? I don't think so, they can take it in their stride. But what is the probability? From .1 ten days ago, I find myself toying with a .2 to .3 this weekend. Maybe it doesn't sound so crazy (rates go up and stocks go up) if we stop seeing the current market as a mechanism for discounting near-term earnings so much as a mechanism for arbitrating probabilities of success in the global/internet economy? A short-term mind shift. A collective decision to spend A Day at the Races. And to think I didn't smoke a thing today.

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