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Pastimes : Murder Mystery: Who Killed Yale Student Suzanne Jovin?
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To: MNI who wrote (331)1/17/2000 3:57:00 AM
From: MNI   of 1397
 
Oh sorry, one typo: I wanted to say 'about' instead of 'but' in the driving example context: '(Only for sake of example, not to allude anything about your alcohol use or driving styles.)'

Also, don't misunderstand, in many situations, also actions that do depend on human decisions are either 'not totally' correlated, or uncorrelated, leading to joint event probabilities anywhere between 25% and 50% for two events of 50% single occurrence probability each.

However, if one knows something about a person's characteristics, prediction probabilities go up to the ceiling of 100% anyway.

E.g. when I was 17.5 and coming home late, I could calculate with 98% probability that Mom would await me, even if the same probability among ten moms of ten of my friends seemed to be below 5% ....

MNI.
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