Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 175.69

+0.9%

1:59 PM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (62680)	1/17/2000 11:26:00 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) of 152472

Actuall both if the phones are using non Qcom ASIC's. So its a buck on the chip and 7.50 on the phone(assuming the ASP drops to 150. So on a $150 dollar phone Qcom makes about 7-8 bucks or the equivelent to arround 6% of every phone. If their chips are used the make about 27.50 for the same phone, lets say eventially 1/2 the phones dont use Q and half do then Q would average about 17.50 per phone of which 12.50 would be pure profit. If there were 100 million CDMA subs next year that would equate to 1.2-1.3 billion in profit(without liscencing fees, Omnitracks, interest,GSTRF etc) on 50X earnings(growth rate) Qcom would be worth close to its value now just for ASICS and Royalties. If you add in interest on 2 billion dollars Omni, and liscensing fees you will be closer to 1.5 Billion. If you give Q a CSCO like PE of 100 then in 12 months Q should be about a 150 billion dollar company. That is assuming only 50% Q mktshare in Asic(doubtfull) and no HDR liscence(doubtfull) and no 10 million china buildout(50/50). Therfore I think q is by no means cheap at its current price, it should double in the next 12-18 months on earnings growth and the worst case scenario's.

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