re: the Barron's Beating...search the 1/10 issue online for "ICGE". Those 3 incubators run together, with SFE a little less volatile. I've seen the specialist put 4 point spreads on it when it starts to tank.
Here's the closing punchline:
Potential investors ought to be aware that starting in February, a significant amount of stock held by insiders will become available for sale. Over 46 million shares will become eligible for sale in February, another 45 million from March through May and an additional 95 million in June. The company said last month that a "significant number of these shares will be sold when eligible for resale," meaning the market will have to absorb a lot of stock in the next few months.
Based on the supply overhang and its enormous current valuation, Internet Capital could be worth substantially less than its current $48 billion by midsummer.
------------
RFMD...I don't see NOK MOT looking to compete, I see them as potential parents as these suppliers have been hard pressed to meet demand. If I were NOK, I'd want to own this key supplier. A somewhat cursory view, and JMO.
LU anywhere here or below for sure. You must be loving it with your criteria. It's sniffing the 200 dma on the TWO year chart. One of the best (the best?) performing dow stock of the last 4 years turns into a value play. LOL
RNWK and others...it appears that I, being traditionally a much shorter term investor, tend to focus more on the 50 day - it's where I look for upward bounces. Again, at least short term. Don't condemn me for my lack of long term faith. I'm not patient with dips. I like stocks that are just breaking up through the 50, especially after good selloffs. Fairly dull, huh?
In that vein, I currently favor SFE of the 3 incubators...just bouncing off the 50 while the other 2 remain well above. As I said in my original post, I'd be averaging in slowly, especially CMGI ICGE.
As far as shorting QQQ...it's my belief that the compx and QQQ need to find the 50 day soon to adequately fuel a longer term runup. They gotta go back for gas. However, I don't think this indicator, or stocks like RNWK YHOO CSCO QCOM, are going back to their 200 days anytime soon. Only one guy's market read.
I feel a tad out of place, just like I do at this weekly roundtable I go to out here - all these guys reviewing 3 and 5 year histories in their portfolios, all selling calls on every move up. I've never held anything over a year, and prefer to either trust them or sell them rather than pay any option vigs...yeah, yeah, I know, now I'm a dunce. Just a little stubborn that's all. A Dutch Aries...paying Uncle Sam more than necessary...but doin ok. |
