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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options

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To: mjoemurphy who wrote (58558)1/17/2000 10:34:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen   of 58727
 
re "How long would you guys hold Intel(INTC) ZNLAT, and ZNLAB ?"

mjoemurphy, trading options is similar to trading stocks: If you think the stock is going to go up tomorrow (or in the next three days, the next week, for the next two months, etc), then hold your call options, because they will go up. Their value will largely derive from the value of the underlying security (excepting time-value from now until expiration). There are other factors that come into play if your options expire within one to two weeks: Out-of-the-money, at-the-money, and just-in-the-money strike price options will lose value in big chunks, generally in the hours late in the day, particularly in the last several days prior to expiration of your options.

What I'm getting at here mostly is that since nobody can know for sure which direction a stock is going to go in the future, then nobody can tell you when to sell an option. The outlook on Intel is bullish right now, but what if, for example, most of the bullishness is factored into the current price, and the tech stock market cools off considerably, and investors decide that, since they don't know for sure how many people are going to be buying new computers in the first quarter of year 2000, they'd rather take some profits, which may drive the stock lower between now and say, Feb expiration?

When to sell a stock is a personal decision, and much harder to make than the decision to buy. The same can be said for when to sell an option, except the decision is even more difficult, because the results are so volatile: Either big up, or big down. Options are more a gamble than an investment, if you hadn't noticed.

This probably isn't the answer you were looking for.
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