Stratfor Global Intelligence Update: Sudan. El-Bashir Ends Isolation
18 January
Summary
A series of army raids on the political headquarters of Sudan's
deposed parliamentary speaker and political strongman Hassan Turabi
seems to mark the consolidation of power for President Omar el-
Bashir. A fundamentalist cleric, Turabi was instrumental in el-
Bashir's rise to power, but the two have clashed over the
president's increasing engagement with moderate Arab states, sub-
Saharan Africa and the West. The president's increasing power
suggests that he can normalize relations with Sudan's neighbors and
bring some stability to a corner of the African continent.
Analysis
Sudanese security forces moved against supporters of Islamic
fundamentalist Hassan Turabi, who until Dec. 12, 1999, was both the
country's parliamentary speaker and the power behind President Omar
el-Bashir. In declaring a state of emergency last month, el-Bashir
had removed his mentor from the speakership. The raids signal that
el-Bashir is taking firm hold of Sudan. Turabi's vision of an
isolated, fundamentalist Islamic state is being replaced by el-
Bashir's drive to reach out to Sudan's neighbors.
Sudanese paratroopers carried out raids on Jan. 13 against 12
headquarters of the defense militias aligned with the Turabi's
National Islamic Front, according to the London-based Iraqi
opposition newspaper Al-Zaman. The paratroopers reportedly seized
large amounts of weapons, ammunition and cars in what was described
as a pre-emptive operation against any possible hostile action by
Turabi supporters.
Three days after the raid, a smiling Turabi appeared on state-run
television for the first time since his ouster. He was shown
talking with a visiting delegation from neighboring Eritrea, which
had just re-opened its embassy in Khartoum. This photo-op was
extremely significant, as Turabi's previous support for Eritrean
Islamic extremists had soured relations between the two nations.
The army raid and Turabi's reversal on Eritrea are evidence that
the president has secured his power base and controls the
government - and he controls Turabi. This has major implications
for Sudan's role within Africa.
Under Turabi's influence, Sudan was an increasingly isolated,
pariah state. For generously supporting militants in neighboring
nations, Khartoum was rewarded with regional hostility. Under
Turabi, the government supported militant groups in Eritrea and
Uganda, and was accused of having played a role in the 1995
assassination attempt on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. In
return, Sudan's own rebels were supported at various times by
Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt.
El-Bashir, a career military man of humble origins, began mending
ties last year but has accelerated his work as he has pushed aside
Turabi. In the last month, the Sudanese government has met with
representatives from Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Qatar,
Bahrain, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). So far,
the results have been positive. Besides the resumption of relations
with Eritrea, Sudan patched up a seven-year old territorial dispute
with Egypt and began a dialogue with Uganda about withdrawing
support for rebel movements. Sudan also agreed to allow Ethiopia
access to Sudanese ports.
If the overtures between Sudan and its neighbors ultimately bear
fruit, ensuing cooperation may bring some measure of stability to
one corner of Africa. Good relations are in Sudan's interest
because it may ultimately reduce foreign support for its own
rebels. The same goes for Egypt, Libya, Uganda and the DRC, all of
which are battling their own insurgents, most of which receive
Sudanese support or take advantage of supply routes through Sudan.
Multiple problems remain, and inter-state agreements in Africa are
notoriously fragile.
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