Can't claim any technical expertise, but here's a go.
Cablelabs seems to say it will probably incorporate s-cdma in Docsis if TERN shows compatibility with prior docsis versions. I don't know if TERN will, or if they need to or not. But I read the news on that issue, and TERN is far from done in the eyes of Cablelabs, that was clear even in the TERN doubting article from the WSJ- despite what's been implied here to the contrary.
Aside from TERN's tech. being touted as better(Can use more of the cable's bandwidth, handles noise/interference inherently better so works on old plant) The latest understanding from Mr. Gilder seems to be the notion that TERN's S-cdma is somehow significantly more open access friendly(I guess I can see that a code division scheme is logically a natural fit for open access), and that you can bet open-access will rule the day for cable Co.'s before too long-- AOL should continue to push for it, and they now have some infrastructure to start leading an open access on cable crusade. What I don't have is a solid understanding of just how open-access friendly TERN really is compared to the competition.
S-CDMA may not be a be-all and end-all in applications outside of QCOM wireless(if it is there- probably is), but it should prove verstile, I would think. Using TERN, there may be no rush to upgrade that cable plant which hasn't been gotten to yet- you get to offer service outbackthere anyway, and right away(surely not an insignificant issue despite all the foot-dragging to date).
I see TERN and CMTO revenues have followed similar paths upward. Tern has far greater losses along the way- but the Rev. growth rates for both are great. I can't conclude anything for sure, but I do know that I don't buy the arguments against TERN just yet- I've yet to see any that adequately covered issues obstensibly in TERNS's favor(at least to this Layman). I don't own either stock. I just figured I'd get some flack around here that might help me out in thinking about these two. Maybe this helps to explain why it is possible to "hype" TERN beyond the valuation of CMTO, as many here may feel is the case.
Dan B |
