Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (45506)	1/18/2000 7:53:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Bill and all, Sorry for a very late response. The S&P reached its high on 12/31(closing basis) or 01/03 (print) and this could have been The top. The first trading days of the new year looked like everybody is trying to sell the good y2k bug news (perfect 'no news is good news'). That could have been a very sharp small surprise correction, and could still be the beginning of a bigger correction. Since crashes usually occur between 27-41 trading days from the top (30-33 trading days from the top is the classic with Fib 34 days to the intermediate term bottom), I started counting trading days from the top to alert for the possibility of a BK on the horizon. The classic crash scenario calls for Monday 2/14 to be Black Monday (T+31) and for the market to bottom the following Thursday (T+34) and correct sharply up the following Friday (expiration day). OTOH, if the SPX manages to surpass its high, which isn't far off, I'll have to reset the count. ATG Edit: If January ends down then I'll start crying Wolf again.

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