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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.910

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3:59 PM EST

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To: gdichaz who wrote (3326)	1/19/2000 12:30:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (4) of 34857

It's hard to assess technologies that aren't commercial yet. But what strikes me about GPRS is the way it was supported by Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, Siemens, Nortel - as well as Lucent and Cisco. So apparently the entire top tier of manufacturers jumped aboard as soon as they could. Leading GSM operators did the same - in Europe, Asia and USA. In contrast, I can't help thinking it's strange that Nortel has been dismissive about HDR in public and Lucent and Sprint have been very reserved - some of their employeers downright hostile. Is Hitachi really the strongest supporter for HDR that could be found? Are Lucent and/or Cisco planning competing solutions? What's this talk about HDR being installed in GSM networks when nobody in Europe seems to have even heard of it? In short: is this the same kind of smoke-and-mirrors operation that was conducted earlier with the "There are highly promising CDMA-overlay trials going on in British GSM networks - soon all over Europe"? I think the operator and manufacturer support is the crucial indicator here. And Hitachi does not make up for the absence of Lucent and Nortel. If the situation changes - that's great news for HDR. Maybe this sounds too skeptical - but it's a fact that not even a quarter of the current hype around various mobile data solutions can eventually be justified. A good example is the recent "i-Mode will be introduced to Europe and USA by NTT-DoCoMo" line that some magazines have started to push. How the hell do you introduce a solution based on a PDC network packet-switch technology and HTML into markets where mobile data is apparently being based on GSM and CDMA networks with different packet-switch technologies and a non-HTML approach to internet? How will the English operators justify the country-wide 3G networks if the cost of building them runs to 4 billion dollars a pop? Five times four is twenty. As in billions of dollars. That's a pretty chunky tab for third generation technology when you multiply it by 15 EU countries. I smell a rat or two - where they're buried is the difficult question. It will be interesting to see where's the Crusoe beef... the way they have whipped up feverish anticipation without actually revealing anything concrete may be the new wave in high tech. Perhaps new technologies will be sold the same way as Star Wars sequels from now on - with carefully manufactured buzz, orchestrated leaks and deliberate mystique. That approach worked for Star Wars IV... problem is that it still sucked. Tero

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