Excerpt from Bekker's analysis:
>>>One bright spot was that sales of the new Corel Linux Operating
System (OS) totaled $3.2 million despite only being in stores for
about three weeks of the quarter. Management noted that about
$1 million was spent on R&D and less than $1 million on other
costs, so the OS is already making money.
New product flow should be strong during the next few months,
with new versions of the Office Suite rolling out during March/April
and CorelDRAW and PHOTO-PAINT coming out during the third
quarter.
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that Corel's
Linux revenue currently accounts for roughly 5% of the total
revenue. Cowpland's five-year goal is for Linux to account for
50% of Corel's revenue. With the Linux OS doing $3.2 million in
just three weeks, we think this target is well within reason.
If we extrapolate the Linux results over a longer period, $10 million
to $12 million in Linux related revenue per quarter isn't out of the
question. Holding other factors constant, this would put Linux at
close to 20% of overall revenue.<<<
I'm more inclined to believe that if $3.2 million, within three week a period, can come out of the starting gate, once the race gathers pace that figure will get even stronger. But still even the conservative analysis is strong for the company. Factor in rapidly changing technology environments--today's Carusoe announcement, for example--and CORL could see some extremely strong gains from its Linux features.
Windows? Well, if CORL didn't have Linux as a counteraction, then I'd agree with your prediction. But it does, so I'm predicting it'll go the other way, up--and, yes, children and other living things will learn the benefits of Linux. |
