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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Goutam who wrote (88434)	1/20/2000 1:24:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) of 1571423

Thread, It was a great day for AMD longs but I wanted to take a few minutes to highlight the things that were not exactly great in today's conf call. They are: - Athlon ASPs - I (and a lot of others) thought they were going to collapse fast but Jerry said they were going to be slightly down from the almost $300 level for Q4. Well $250 ain't slightly down. I can see a lot of potential reasons for this decline and am even for increasing price aggressiveness if they can get the business SKUs. But, we need to pay attention to this number for Q1. - Guidance for Business SKUs was basically H2 (except for NEC/Fujitsu in Japan). This kind of confirms that business SKUs kick in after Thunderbird. So, that is something that needs attention. Without good business penetration AMD's growth could be severely limited. - Athlon numbers were a touch lighter than what most people on this thread thought. Could have been motherboards or could have been IBMs pullout from retail. A minor red flag - but nothing to worry unless AMD fails to hit ~2Mu in Q1. If they don't do that many that would definitely be a sign that growth will stall RAPIDLY without business SKUs. (to be sure, I am pleased with the aggressive price moves that AMD took in making 600MHz as the baseline for Q1 and I think that will do the trick but the situation definitely needs monitoring) - Jerry said K6 inventory almost drained out in Q4. Now 5.2Mu of K6s was not bad but that comment is somewhat of a surprise to me. Why "almost"? If the quarter was sold out they shouldn't have had any inventory unless there was a demand problem or motherboard/chipset problem. Does anyone have any opinion on this or has anyone heard anything on this front? Chuck P.S.: Based on the OEM activity, I think the guidance is heavily sandbagged just like Q4 - feel pretty good about $1 for Q1. Based on upbeat Dresden forecast I think $4 in earnings for 2000 should be easily achievable. If the analysts come to at least a $3 number then $60 should happen in a jiffy. Good luck everyone.

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