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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: t2 who wrote (4793)1/20/2000 6:51:00 AM
From: t2  Read Replies (1) of 24042
 
We should be at 280 by the time earnings are released. I have been right in the last couple of months with my aggressive predictions (maybe i was even conservative). I will try my luck again.

I won't mind if someone posts next Thursday to tell me how off base i was. However, i fully expect to see 280.

My rationale:
Tremendous momentum and it is growing.
Stock now has developed a QCOM type of image among the
media. I believe it is even better considering all the broadband chatter and component shortages. It is also developing a Cisco/Intel image.
Those contemplating taking profits will think back to the strong gains experienced by Cisco for years, thus reducing selling among institutional investors.
Even if earnings only come in line, the conference will
cite capacity constraints as the reason. The risk of a sharp price drop if they don't report a blow out quarter is small. They will talk about how capacity constraints held them back and how they opening up big facilities all over the place. This anticipation by the market will mean that investors will not get jittery about selling ahead of earnings. Remember last quarter how the earnings were better than expected but people were tossing around big whisper numbers. The stock dropped initially afterhours but then took in a big way the next day (and even late afterhours trading).

Based upon the above, we will see a big drop in the amount of stock for sale and an increase in demand right up until earnings. This imbalance will of course be corrected with some serious price gains to the 280 range. In addition, the shorts will get blown away!

Good Luck

(the above is all --- IMHO of course)
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