Well one can interpret facts in many ways. My interpretation of the facts of Corl suggest to smoke and mirrors. Now on can link to a yahoo post. but let's save everyone time and just insert the post. Off course this is what I consider a well thought out post.. Oh, on the reference to cluetrain. cluetrain.com I would say that anyone who reads the 95 clues has some measures to apply when thinking about what a company is about.
by: bron47
1/19/00 9:55 pm Msg: 11303 of 11317
First - thanks for the cluetrain link, Tom - loved it.
Guys - given Corel's distribution channels, what's the chance that they just flooded their pipeline with Corel Linux units and are showing that as sales? Microsoft used to do (maybe still does) this with new Windows releases. If so, then this may not be an accurate indicator of their true Linux sales. Not bashing, Irish, I'm genuinely curious. If they did move 3.5 million in Linux in such a short time, then I would be pleasantly surprised and it would be very good news for Linux. But...Tom's point about what did it cost is valid. What incentives did they offer their distribution channels? What returns and expenses will follow, etc.? These are valid questions and I think the answers will tell us a lot about Corel.
Irish - Tom's not negative on Corel because he hates the company, but because he doubts they are Linux-savvy and he sees a lot of fluff (i.e. weak technology) not substance in a lot of their strategy. Now, marketing may indeed prove succesful short-term and Corel may indeed *be* successful, but Tom's nose is telling him something smells fishy. Tom's a pretty savvy guy, so even if you disagree with him, it would pay to consider what he says.
I would assume you are also a savvy guy, and by the same token, if you're sold on Corel, one might be inspired to take a second look also. One thing you can say for Corel, they know how to work the media and street a lot better than
Applix. But I'm not sure how credible they are, always.
Finally, I'm a technical analyst, not a fundamentalist - so reading financials is not my strong suit, but their last quarter didn't look so hot to me. If the Linux sales are soft numbers (i.e. they may not hold up), then where does that leave them? It looks pretty risky to me, but that's just my take. The chart is interesting, however, and does seem to show some potential appreciation, so I have a feeling some good trades can still be made off of CORL. And there's always the chance they'll actually pull it off, I guess.
Regards,
Bron
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Tom Watson tosiwmee |
