Shorted QQQ today, at 189.
It looks to me like QQQ has ended its low-volatility new-high-every-day mid-October-to-early-January up-spike. Maybe we are returning to a period of increased volatility, in a trading range, or at least a gently rising channel. Range, 193-160.
Given that interest rates are higher, and valuations are even more absurd, I would expect more volatility in this new range than during the times when QQQ was range-bound in 1999.
Caveat: so far, on QQQ movements, I've been a good contrary indicator. If I'm wrong, I'll cover at 105, or 110 at the latest.
Shorted, rather than buying puts, because I'm trading a range, rather than hedging a huge downmove.
The realtime quote for QQQ was 189 1/4-189 1/2 just before I placed my market order, and 189 5/8-189 3/4 emmediately afterward. I placed a market order (something I rarely do) because it was a small order, and I thought QQQ was very liquid. So I was unpleasantly surprised that my order cleared at 189. I guess the lesson is: always use limit orders, for everything. |
