Yep, we got some real trouble here. There was pretty much an infinite amount of stock available for buying when it dropped below 70 at the end of the day. Tomorrow we need to run 1 1/2 points or so (69 3/4 to 71 1/4) just to have at least part of the day's range above the 50-day moving average.
Regarding the trend after the first week of February, I was wrong that it is "usually down" -- it has been down three times and up twice. The specifics:
Feb 1995: up, 22 - 42 by late March (the beginning of Micron the trading sardine as we know it)
Feb 1996: down, 44 - 28 by early March
Feb 1997: up, 32 - 45 by mid March
Feb 1998: down, 39 - 27 by mid April
Feb 1999: down, 80 - 59 in ten days, then a short-killing rise back to 75, then 75 - 55 in three days
Except for early January of 1995, which was flat (and perhaps does not count because it is not truly a part of the mania), the late-January trends have been sharply higher. This year is unique in that the late-January trend is sharply down. |
