Actually, I'd probably change the wording of your sentence to "Vendors will be using the Athlon because ..." I already mentioned in the INTC thread that system vendors can't just switch between Intel and AMD on a moment's notice. Perhaps in Q4, vendors underordered on Athlons and overordered on Pentium IIIs. That probably contributed to the impression that Intel was having production problems with Coppermine..
Tench, it seems like GTW switched very quickly...GTW systems with Athlons are being delivered as I type this.
That would mean that in Q1, vendors will be ordering more from AMD than before, now that AMD is building up a good reputation for themselves. But that still wouldn't explain why huge price drops are necessary. Maybe AMD just doesn't want to leave anything to chance here. Thus, in order to build a good repute with their customers, and to ensure that there will be enough demand when Dresden comes on-line, they'd drop prices like mad. Unfortunately, that could draw a competitive response from Intel, at least after Intel fills their backlog of orders. Then the Joe Osha nightmare scene could become a reality, with a devastating price war occurring on the high-end.
I think the big price drops are the equivalent of after Xmas sales...clearing out inventory as well switching gears into slower demand. The pc business is very cyclical as we all know. Besides, isn't that what Intel is doing with its mobile units?
You, Paul, and PB have all said before that you have the highest respect for Intel's mgmt. If they are as good as you say they are, there will not be a price war.
ted |
