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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (88576)1/20/2000 5:57:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (1) of 1576016
 
Tench, re:<AMD's priority is to hurt Intel more than to make the most amount of money. Either that, or AMD is more demand-limited than I thought.>

Obviously it is more demand limited, based on the inventory numbers that Sanders gave. IMO, the price discrepancy between the top end (700 - 800 MHz) and the middle (550 - 650) is way beyond normal historical relationships. When the 486DX2-66 came out, it was the fastest chip on the block and you could buy a motherboard/cpu combo for $600.

If the ASP was $245 for Q4, then AMD must have been forced to sell 75% of their chips at the two lowest speed grades (500 and 550). My guess is that demand for a 700 MHz Athlon is twice as high at $475 as it is at $700. People and companies are willing to spend $200 to get 100 higher MHz, but not $400.

As for Q1, I expect 1.5M Athlons will be sold at an ASP of $220. If the K6-2+ is available in volume by mid February above 500 MHz, I expect K6 volume to be 3.5M at $60 ASP. If K6-2+ is not timely, I expect 3M K6's at $50 ASP.

Scenario 1: 1.5M Athlon @220 = 330M, 3.5M K6 @ $60 = $210M
Scenario 2: 1.5M Athlon @220 = 330M, 3M K6 @ $50 = $150M

Scenario 1 gives a small increase to revenue for the CPG group, scenario 2 gives a small decrease.

Petz
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