Pat-- OT about NTAP
First, will gladly share conference call inf whenever I have it.
Second, re NTAP. I have about 30% in NTAP, so am not buying more right now. However, have urged my son to buy more even at today's price. This is based on the following research from Multex.com.
1. Merrill Lynch, a free report dated 11/16: "growth is *accelerating* as the filer crosses the chasm. ... Filer growth is accelerating. Increased brand recognition and improved sales productivity." Also a reference to a "tornado of demand" beginning
2. Deutsche Bank, paid report dated 10/4: increased market acceptance of appliance concept. *Going mainstream*. Expect the NAS market to continue to expand rapidly.
very strong demand drivers are in place to support current growth rate (which was 90% last Q). Ntap has gained share as others have lost it, in 1998 NTAP market share was 40%.
Results over past 2 years have been strong ad consistet. For 8 quarters, growth has been between 70-80%.
3. Salomon Smith Barney 12/1. NTAP as 46% market share. NAS filers have been quietly increasing their features/ functions, and have migrated into the data centers of many corporations.
Went from SCSI to Fiber channel. This has enabled NTAP to triple its capacity from .5 terabyte a year ago to 1.5 terabytes today. Will offer 3 terabytes by Q1 of 2000 ad 6 by the end of 2000.
Dataquest estimates the overall NAS market will grow from 562m in 1999 to 6.7B in 2003, 75%/year
Caching market (commoditized) to grow from 59.4m in 1999 to 1.2B i 2003, 113%/yr
NTAP is clear market leader in an *exploding market*. At least a one-year lead over the competition, clear roadmap to keep #1 position; top notch management; upside to estimates
4. Prudential 12/8 free report. market is increasingly embracing NAS. Market is polarizing, with strong players getting stronger. NTAP well positioned to exploit growth opportunities.
Current growth trends remain strong. Assuming 80% growth for 2000. Earnings estimates are conservative, with additional upside to 2001 estimates.
NTAP's growth as recently accelerated as a result of increased market acceptance of NAS, and acclerated growth in caching business.
5. Prudential 1/7 free report. Read this! "North American Sales 'on fire'. If current trends hold, NTAP could maintain or even accelerate its 90% growth rate from last Q.
Sales cycles are accelerating.
There's lots more there, Pat, all of it good. I really recommend the multex reports. Many are free, and they all help to understand the position NTAP holds.
Let me know what you decide! :^)
regards |
