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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies
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To: P314159d who wrote (35573)1/20/2000 9:07:00 PM
From: bill c.  Read Replies (2) of 36349
 
P,

>> no confidence here or there for a better stock price? <<

If I didn't expect a better price, I would sell. I will give Pairgain until 3Q00 to show progress with Avidia.

>> I say that they beat by a penny and spin some chitlins, etc and hold on to this range we have now. <<

The loss of HDSL revenue from SBC and Bell Atlantic should be over. I'll assume they are still seeing pricing pressures in the HDSL business. They just started to move this commodity business to Mexico. They will have higher marketing and R&D costs for Avidia and HDSL2 this quarter as they ramp these products.

If you're looking for positive 4Q99 earnings, you should sell the stock. They have a 25million @link contract which should start in late 1Q00. They are selling the chip division for ~150 million, plus ~200million in the bank.

Lets not compute is the MCI "Avidia" and Bell Atlantic "HDSL2" rumors. But we should value the Avidia product at a minimum of 700 million, given the price Nortel paid for Promatory.

>> Those remotes are generating huge numbers now. <<

Now is now, what about in 6 months? Margins on the CPE will only get worse. They have cut R&D to the bone and their customers are funding their projects. I'm not comfortable owning a CPE company, which is owned by a family trust, with 10 million in the bank. Is TLTN going to save them?

I don't know much about TLTN, but they do compete against Pairgain in the HDSL business.
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