150,000 subs must have been added since December 6th since they hit 1 million(
that's the date of the announcement at least). That would fall in line with the 36%
growth in subs over the 3rd quarter. Actually it would be more like 40% growth for
December, but I'll keep the 36%. So bear with me, if we only use the 36% rate
quarter over quarter on sub growth, it breaks down like this:
Q1 414,000 new subs = 1,564,000
Q2 563,00 new subs = 2,127,000
Q3 765,000 new subs = 2,892,000
Q4 1,041,000 new subs = 3,933,000
So a year from now it is realistic to expect that ATHM would be announcing nearly 4
million subs at the end of 2000.
Now this doesn't even take into consideration any of the new programs coming from
OEM distribution deals with Dell, Compaq and Hewlett-Packard, makers of more than
60% of the home computers sold in the U.S. today. These relationships allow
customers to purchase DOCSIS cable modems along with their computers, to order
computers pre-configured for the @Home service, and to schedule @Home
installation appointments as they order their PCs. with @Home preinstalled.
Or the ramped up push by ATT, see the new site they just put up ATT@Home: (a
nice surprise given the recent friction pumped up in the press) tour the site, it's really
great.
athome.att.com
Or all the retail outlets that weren't signed on at the beginning of 1999 like:
Retail partners in the U.S. include CompUSA, Circuit City, Office Depot, Staples and
The Good Guys!, and in Canada include Radio Shack, Business Depot, Cantel mall
stores, Future Shop and IBM Home Computing Stores.
4 million subs in a year. I could live with that.
Now this is from the ATHM press release, and this is growth!
@Home Consumer Broadband Service Excite@Home had approximately 1,150,000
subscribers at the end of 1999, up 36% from the third quarter and more than three
times the subscribers at the end of 1998.
If we go by the growth rate for all of 1999 it comes to about 3,450,000 subs by
12/31/2000. Still not bad, but I don't think that 1999 overall reflects the full impact of
widespread roll out of ATHM broadband service at all, and 4 million could well be too
conservative.
Add to that Mathlogic and Enliven, the real hidden gems, and 2000 should be a rocket
year. |
