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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Les H who wrote (37732)1/21/2000 9:29:00 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Stock Market:

The continued fragmentation of the market makes it unfeasible to make a prediction for "the market" as a whole. The $SPX (and $OEX) probably conforms best to what our broad indicators are saying. The equity-only put-call ratio has stopped rising and right now appears to be in tight range. I'd call it slightly negative at these levels, since it still is in the area of the chart which indicates that call buying has been exceeding put buying for long time. Thus, it's likely to generate another sell signal in the not-too-distant future. In fact, it is mirroring the $SPX itself, which has been trading in a range between 1390 and 1470 since last November. Our oscillator is in a fairly similar position: it has been creeping higher and higher into modestly overbought territory, but it hasn't issued a sell signal. It stands at about +60, after having risen as high as +148 earlier in the week. I think these indicators lend themselves to a modestly bearish interpretation, which would be changed if new highs were made in $SPX and $OEX, on a closing basis. Thus, a reasonable strategy would be to own put bear spreads, planning to stop yourself at new highs on $SPX.

optionstrategist.com
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