How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 507.66

-0.7%

9:44 AM EST

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To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (36959)	1/21/2000 10:18:00 PM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) of 74651

Frank: I feel your pain big time. However if you go back and look at MSFT's recent performance it seems to do this kind of a dance with regularity. It explodes and runs up to a high and then slowly sells off to a 15-20% discount. It always recovers and goes on to new highs exceeding the old one by about 15%. The earnings were somewhat of a disappointment in terms of those ascribed to O/S sales but that was to be expected as many corps. are not going to buy Win98 in the last qrtr. of 99 especially when W2K is going to be released on 2-17-2000. The cautionary comments were all part of MSFT's continuing gambit of perennially lowering the expectations of analysts. They do it with such sincerity that it inevitably chases the momentum boys away. You are therefore correct in saying that the cautious comments chased the "Mo Mo" boys away. But they are not really a factor in long term investing. MSFT's numbers are every bit as good as the darling SUNW but the perception is that MSFT is losing its traction in the O/S field and now must prove otherwise by having a great W2K campaign which no doubt will occur. In addition to this MSFT has so many irons in the fire that it takes a data base to keep track of them. People have yet to appreciate the depth of MSFT and what it is able to do on a moments notice even though they have the example of IE 5.0 staring them in the face. They succeeded so well with IE 5.0 that the have had to stopped not by the market place but by the US Gov't. The suit will pass away with a whimper as the DOJ has no case and becomes more laughable with each succeeding day. MSFT will prevail but it will take time for the anal-ists who are always looking past MSFT for the next MSFT. In the meanwhile sell covered calls or just wait but when MSFT decides to go up it goes quickly. It will be above 180 in a years time. If 80 points isn't enough then buy some VERT although through MSFT you already own some. JFD

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