Letmebe Frank........Thanks for reminding me to re-evaluate the Winspear chart. I knew there was not much positive going on so was too depressed to keep looking at it. At the time of my Post #25135 I did think we had a breakout underway but, in hindsight, was too optimistic based on an apparent initial break to the upside of the medium-term (extending back to 8/13/99) and long-term (extending back to 5/26/99) standard error channels. These channels are not definitive tools for predicting breakouts, especially right at the point of breakout, but there was not much else to go by on the Winspear chart. Even the long-term down trendline extending back to 6/1/99 had only two anchor points fairly close together which makes extrapolation risky.
Almost three weeks have passed since my last analysis. After extending the error channels to the right I find that they have grown a little wider but still encompass the price data. In addition, to give the most conservative trendline interpretation I have relocated the second anchor point for the long-term down trendline to the recent mini-peak at 12/31/99.
So, the bottom line is that my earlier breakout alert has turned out to be a false alarm and we are still locked in the downtrend.
I do see two aspects of the chart I will use for a positive spin. The first is that the slope of the regression line for the narrow medium-term standard error channel is fairly shallow. If it were to continue with the same slope all the way to March 31st, almost two and a half months from now, the projected price would be about 1.74, a downside of only 20% from today's close of 2.17. But surely speculative interest in this year's program will raise the price before then, no? If not, maybe we have our money on the wrong horse. The second encouraging aspect of the chart is that the last two shallow price valleys are very close to a double bottom formation but the corresponding valleys in a MACD Histogram are definitely showing higher lows. This is known as a Bullish Divergence, which often signals trend reversals. I wouldn't bet the mortgage money on it, but it often proves to be true. On the negative side, the downtrending price of the past couple weeks is threatening to take out the double bottom to the downside, but perhaps it might create a triple bottom, which would be good.
Charles |
