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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (15907)1/22/2000 4:49:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Good questions, Mike.
It seems to me that lurking around every one of the GG thread favorites there are business cum technology questions which have no clear answer.
1. NTAP is growing faster than EMC but will that continue when EMC sells its own appliances?
2. As optical telephony expands will LU and NT make some of their own equipment that JDSU now makes?
3. Will Nokia etc. simply continue to ignore CDMA and make their own slower devices cheaper and cheaper until some day QCOM's patents run out?
4. Will GMST's patents hold up in court?
5. Will broadband make the PC unnecessary because the web servers will do everybody's computing? If the web servers do the computing will the user care what operating system is under the hood?
6. Will sheer size make CSCO less agile?
7. Will SEBL eventually be defeated by SAP? by ORCL?
Off topic, but the much loved pharmaceutical firms have the long term risk of price control as pharmaceutical expenses keep rising as a percent of people's take home pay.
I just use this example to point out that every business has problems.
Lacking a good answer to any of the above, some of which are admittedly rather remote worries, what can we do but diversify? If NTAP defeats EMC we'll still have QCOM,CSCO etc. As to what's expensive, with the prices that we see now I think there is a built in expectation of a minimum of 40% growth in the profits and sales for most of these fabulous companies that we talk about. Stocks that slow down are slashed in half. But as long as the growth continues at 40/50% per year we are okay. When the internet is everywhere the growth rates and the P/E's will finally descend.
JMHO
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