I wouldn't trade anything (especially RFMD) on what some analyst says...most all of them upgrade or downgrade based on past earnings and revenues...RFMD's revenues will dramatically ramp beginning in late-summer and won't look back...if anyone seriously read management's forward looking statements, you would have to be crazy to sell the stock(unless you are swingtrading).
Remember, management told us last Q that revenues would be flat to slightly up in the 3Q...exactly what happened, with a rise of 6.2% sequentially. NOW, they are telling us that business is strong with two new handset customers in the bag, a book to bill over 1, and Nokia's business to RFMD will significantly increase over last year's level. The company also saying that revenue will increase in the 4Q and that they believe the component shortage problem is being addressed. Also, with CDMA revenues "surprisingly" strong, the company should continue to ramp revenue in this lucrative area.
To put it briefly, you can't buy or sell longterm positions based solely on past revenues and earnings, you have to be forward thinking. Analysts are not forward thinking and they have cost me tons of money in the past. All they are good for is providing good buying opportunities, which they themselves probably did when the stock price sold off. RFMD's management has is the past been very forthright with their forward looking statements and IMO they are telling us without spelling it out that the rest of the calendar year looks very strong. I think I would rather trust management with my money than Piper WHO?
FWIW,
Emac
PS I rememeber the last time analysts gave me a great buying opp at $40 back in OCT. Still holding those shares. Now up over 100% on those shares alone, not counting what I bought back in March of '99 at $20 post-split. I know other members of this thread bought shares in the $40-$42 range as well. Who's crying now? Not us long term holders. |
