John, Id be curious to see what you and Ian think of cycle timing re : I believe this was your extrapolation that mattson's earnings will peak near the end of 2001 as far out as you could see, given Cary Salsberg's discussion from another thread:
To: Carlson who wrote (3893)
From: Cary Salsberg Friday, Jan 21, 2000 2:46 AM ET
Reply # of 3915
"Carlson,
At this time in the cycle, there are healthy earnings and margins and both are expected to continue to improve. PE is the appropriate valuation method. In the last cycle, the peak price averaged about 20 times the peak earnings and preceded it by about one year. Prior to the recent splits, I was looking for a peak EPS of ~$8 for AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, and NVLS and I believed $160 discounts the cycle. I have a dollar target for my portfolio before I sell, but the target is less than 10% away.
Cary"
Thanks much, steve |
