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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.810-4.8%Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: gdichaz who wrote (3379)1/22/2000 3:48:00 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (4) of 34857
 
Hi Chaz,

<< The latest report is that GPRS will actually run for the average user for average use (i.e. just plain average) at about 30 kbps. Is that close to accurate? >>

Yes! But don't take that to be authoritative. Please read on.

<< Is this sort of like a 56 k modem really runs most of the time at around 40k, or is there some other factor involved? >>

Other factors. 40k about right. I get consistent 49.3 kbps from a great local ISP (delivering xDSL shortly to me) and the last super Bell Atlantic tech that visited my SOHO couldn't believe I was getting that over copper even though only 1.2 miles from the Telco.

Note: you have recently heard me complain about all the good, early but definitive stuff, that has been cleaned off the wireless data sites in the last few months. I am sure that this is because we are moving quickly into standardization so we can clear the smoke. For me this means that for my practical purposes "WCDMA" or "W-CDMA" becomes GSM ETSI UTMS with UTRA in the 3G world or at least in the Americas, Europe, Africa, Australia, and some parts of Asia. The good news is that replacement stuff on the web sites is coming on fast.

There is a dated (4 months old) but excellent background article linked below by GPRS expert Peter Rysavy who is not to be confused with Chris Resavy who is charged with the responsibility of doing the first commercial implementation of GPRS in the United States (infrastructure already installed from one of their 2 vendors and I assume prototypes of handsets already available from their initial 2 vendors ... Nokia?? ... I hope).

gsmdata.com

This web page below is just updated and is pretty good and it has GREAT Links:

gsmworld.com

While you are up there check out "Roaming", the achilles heal of CDMA.

This is what the GSM Association has now FINALLY published and please note that the GSM Association is rather conservative about what they publish:

gsmworld.com

TIMESCALES FOR GPRS:

When a new service is introduced, there are a number of stages before it becomes established. GPRS service developments will include standardization, infrastructure development, network trials, contracts placed, network roll out, availability of terminals, application development, and so on. These stages for GPRS are: Date Milestone Throughout 1999 Network operators place trial and commercial contracts for GPRS infrastructure.

2000 Incorporation of GPRS infrastructure into GSM networks

Summer of 2000 First trial GPRS services become available. Typical single user throughput is likely to be 28 kbps. For example, T-Mobil is planning a GPRS trial at Expo2000 in Hanover in the Summer of 2000

Start of 2001 Basic GPRS capable terminals begin to be available in commercial quantities

Throughout 2001 Network operators launch GPRS services commercially and roll out GPRS. Vertical market and executive GPRS early adopters begin using it regularly for nonvoice mobile communications

2001/2 Typical single user throughput is likely to be 56 kbps. New GPRS specific applications, higher bitrates, greater network capacity solutions, more capable terminals become available, fueling GPRS usage

2002 Typical single user throughput is likely to be 112 kbps. GPRS Phase 2/ EDGE begins to emerge in practice

2002 GPRS is routinely incorporated into GSM mobile phones and has reached critical mass in terms of usage. (This is the equivalent to the status of SMS in 1999)

2002/3 UMTS arrives commercially

<< should follow up with someone else here, who do you suggest - Mika? >>

Mika for sure!

CDMA is Toast! <g> There I went and did it. Caxton will get me, and Bux will ask me what my agenda is, and mQ will be over here to rant, and Ruff will send me a PM, and Slacker will roast me, and THAT is what SI is all about! Heck, I'll take the heat off of Tero for a day.

What is it you say? Qualcomm & NOKIA, Together the World!

- Eric -
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