NucTrader, you ask "what's going to lead the DOW (maybe energy)? Drugs? Banks? Cyclicals? Retail? Insurance companies? Reits? Steels? Airlines? Automotive?"
I'd like to get more discussion going on this, so here's my two cents worth:
Energy? Yes! Natural gas is in a long-term uptrend, and oil is about to hit record highs, yet the stocks are lagging. I think investors who got burned in 98 still hate the oil patch, but when the effect of higher prices really makes its way through to energy companies bottom line (which it hasn't yet, especially for the service companies) then they'll follow the money. And speaking of energy, I hope you're all following fuel cells. They're the way of the future. Ballard is about to build a plant for mass production of fuel cell engines for Detroit autos.
Drugs? I think so. IMO the wild rally in small-cap biotechs now in progress is not just wild speculation, but actually based on lots of great new products coming out, as a result of developments in genetic engineering. Take VPHM for example. I subscribe to new-era thinking for biotechs, because successful new treatments tend to be very profitable.
Banks, Insurance, Retail, Autos, and Reits? Not unless the economy and the stock market have as good a year in 2000 as they did in 1999. Even then, is there much upside? The stocks that have already fallen aren't going to come back until their results improve, not merely hold steady.
Steels? Maybe a bit. They're starting a cyclical upturn but it's likely to be slow and boring.
Cyclicals and Airlines? I don't follow these sectors.
Like I say, just my two cents worth. I'd like to know what other people think.
Fun-da-Mental |
