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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 133.78

-0.1%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Geoff Nunn who wrote (151765)	1/22/2000 4:32:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) of 176387

INTC reported a 7.9 % rise in revenues for the q4. Kumar has estimated that INTC shipped 31.6 M processors in Q4 versus 30.1 M in Q3. That is a growth rate of 5% in unit sales. If DELL merely matched the INTC unit shipment growth rate it would yield 3250*1.05= 3412 k units. The European numbers from CONTEXT indicate 750/.21 = 3570 k units. Thus unless the US fell off more strongly than Europe one would infer that the IDC WW estimate is low. I suspect that the preliminary IDC numbers are somewhat low as they were last quarter and also in Q1 last year. This quarter is going to be very hard to call in advance because of the reversal of trends in ASPs, changing product mix, and the impact of Y2K. Also, it seems clear that DELL has been working very hard in January and is now able to sell RDRAM based high end systems. Regular sales of preloaded W2K systems will begin on Feb 17 but W2K upgrade coupons are available now. In short, it is simply to hard to call the quarter before it is over. What is somewhat remarkable about DELL is that it is right on course to exceed its 25 B revenue target that was set publically more than a year ago. In other words, while we are fretting over a 100k in revenue and a cent in eps quarter after quarter DELL's calls its shots annually and exceeds them.<LOL> I guess this says more about analysts and investors than it does about the company itself. :)

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