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Technology Stocks : American Superconductor (AMSC)
AMSC 38.87+6.3%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ram Seetharaman who wrote (315)1/22/2000 11:09:00 PM
From: Wafa SHIHABI  Read Replies (1) of 973
 
Thx Ram
It is quite impossible to forecast where any of the SC's will get to, without some deep and detailed knowledge of their markets' feedback.
The only thing I can look at is the size of market each is addressing, and the fact that their acceptance in each of these markets is far more advanced than where it was say a year ago. Any kind of success in obtaining contracts in 2000 will aid in answering the first issue more deffinately. Only then will a forecast price will mean anything.
As for financing, don't forget that several of them have had to obtain rescue funding at the cheapest level in their life path. For example ISCO's rescue package loaded it with convertibles at $0.25. I don't recall the exact numbers, but the resulting dilution is on the order of 6:1. Luckily, that process had brought its price down from the $3 range to $0.30 over the past year, so that that dilution is already priced in. The fact remains that all ISCO can obtain out of that round of funding is maybe $10m at most. Compare that to AMSC which can now issue 1m shares and obtain $35m for it in a flash. Seeing they still have enough cash to treat their current burn rate for another few quarters, I expect they will only do it at above the $50 price level.
Hope this answers your question.
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