http://www.cnbc.com/stocks/fullstory.asp?Symbol=DELL&id=854117
Message 12642494
Re: "With all my confidence in INPR, it continues to be extremely speculative at this point, as are ALL the other Linux plays (RHAT, CORL, etc.). "
David funny you mention this, I see a pattern, take a look at these two quotes from the above links:
"International Data Corp. (IDC) research states that Linux was the fastest-growing server operating environment in 1998, growing more than 190 percent in that year alone and capturing more than 15.8 percent of the 4.4 million revenue shipment server operating systems market segment. Additionally, IDC states that Red Hat Linux is by far the most popular distribution, preferred by 68.7 percent of U.S. Linux users. "
AND
"More broadly, the fact that IBM is putting its full weight behind Linux is the biggest sign yet that Linux has become accepted by mainstream corporations, since IBM wouldn?t be making this move unless the company thought there was a big market for Linux among its buttoned-down corporate clients. Even though IBM has been lagging in the hardware area lately, the company still sells a lot of iron, which means that the repercussions of its decisions are felt throughout the computer industry."
IMO it is important to realize that IBM is going strong into Linux because it (as evident by the IDC data above) is perhaps losing servers and larger computer business to Linux. IMO IBM is the one company who knows about losing out to another somewhat insignificant oncoming inflection model to it's core businesses. Perhaps they have done research and see Linux moving faster than anyone realized? They seem to be making a definitive move on Linux for some reason?
It also seems that Fuller is seeing the same as evident from his interbase interview last month in which he stated that the computer industry should all go open i.e. MSFT/SUNW/ORCL should or will eventually release their codes as that is what will meet the needs of the internet and businesses around the world. And it will be creatively positive for the industry, as I understood it.
One thing seems for sure any customer will choose a product that it has control over as oppose to one that controls it (the customer). Linux in my view is a push towards total customer needs and satisfaction. The servicing of Linux will be where one has a opportunity to earn there profits.
In conclusion the bulk of IBM's earnings these days are from servicing. RHAT is a servicing Linux company. INPR licences the software tools to service Linux among other platforms. I think there is a bit more than just speculation to this Linux inflection point. Inprise's stock price has tripled since they have pushed into Linux I'd say it is time to take more than a speculative look at Linux unless of course you are MSFT,ORCL,SUNW then you might be looking for a way to make it look like the PC did next to mainframes when it first starting getting attention. Well we all know what the final results of that strategy was! The PC may not have killed the mainframe but it certainly foretold of it's diminishment.
I think Linux is to the internet what the PC was to computer networking (LAN/WAN).
TTOSBT |
