Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: johnzhang who wrote (15988)	1/23/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Fuel Cell Maturity Some of my work has brought me into contact with the Fuel Cell for automobile community. My thumbnail analysis is that although this technology could be a gorilla nurturing ground, we are at least 10 years away from any tornado. I won't go into all the details but will cover some of the reasons why it is so far away. First the cost per KW is at least 2 orders of magnitude higher than current technology. Depending on who is counting, it could be over 3 orders of magnitude. No fuel distribution network exists. The fuels of choice are pure Hydrogen or methanol. At this point methane power vehicle proliferation is hemmed in by distribution constraints even though huge natural gas distribution networks already exist in most countries within the world. The US, Italy, and Argentina have by far the highest density of methane fueling stations. To drive across any of these countries requires very careful logistical planning. Has anybody reading this thread ever seen a NG refueling station anywhere? In these countries the methane refueling locations exceed those of Hydrogen by at least 3 orders of magnitude. In practical terms there are no refueling locations for methanol. Storage problems/range problems You can't store much hydrogen unless it is liquified. Current cryogenic storage tanks cost 4 orders of magnitude more than a molded plastic gasoline tank. You boil off Hydrogen continuously in this system. Estimate suggest that at least 10% fuel losses will occur. Since methanol is a liquid at typical temperatures encountered you can store more mass. The problem with methanol and range is that you need a small chemical factory on board to crack the methanol and extract the hydrogen. The installations I've seen (Mercedes) occupy at least 50% of the total available volume within the vehicle. Also with methanol you have to store the waste byproducts. There are also schemes to crack gasoline to get the hydrogen. This solves the distribution problem but not the cracker problem. The scale of these two problems will not be solved in the next 5 years to at least a 99% confidence interval. Ten years will be difficult. Diamler has publicly announced plans to field a vehicle by 2004. The engineers that work there readily admit that they have no idea how to make a fieldable (commercially viable) car today. In deed one told me that he doubts they can do by 2008. Nevertheless huge sums have been invested by Diamler and Ford into Ballard in Canada. Ballard has a voracious appetite for burning up this cash. They have made progress over the last 2 years, but are nowhere near providing a feasible power plant for cars.They have also developed an exemplary Public Relations Department. My guess is that the first viable applications will be isolated power generation stations. Possibly natural gas fueled power cells for attaching to one's home may become economical 4-5 years before we'll see anything on vehicles. Fatboy

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next