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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Lars who wrote (11391)1/23/2000 11:42:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
Bob Brinker / Yield Curve / Recession Predictability

Bob, you talked about the aforementioned in terms of shorter bond rates and the 30 year bond rate on yesterday's show. Although I agree with you there may be a better forecasting model which I came across in my work awhile back which predicts yield curve based recessions.

Bob, a publication from the New York Federal Reserve Bank disseminated in 1996 seems to be more effective in predicting yield curve based recessions and should be required reading for all interested in the discussion.

1996http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/ci2-7.html
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