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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 56.61-0.6%Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: biowa who wrote (532)1/23/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: Vector1  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Biowa,
Some thoughts on the macro question.
1. Biotechs will begin to eat into big pharmas share of the dollar spend. Big pharma stock performance has lagged the market over the past year and one half. Many of the designer molecules that result from pharmacogenomics will replace existing drugs.

2. The developing world will become an increasingly important market for healthcare companies.

3. Drugs that will comand an increasing portion of the worlds GNP are ones that cure deadly disease and extend life. IMO the more effective the molecules are the more likely the will command a larger potion of GNP.

4. Drugs have the potential to massively reduce hopital stays eliminate a huge dollar cost that will be tranfered to the discovery companies.

Some of the issues that our society will have to deal with are access to the medicines of the 21st century. Will all Americans have equal access. Do they today? Does the gap between the quality of medical care for the haves and have nots grow.

IMO when historians look back to the first 30 years of the 21st century the defining event willnot be the interet or telecomunications but the advances in healthcare as a result of understanding the human genome and the therapies that result therefrom.

That being said I think the genomics companies are overbought at this point and we will see a correction over the next few months.

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