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Technology Stocks : Hutchinson Technology, Inc.
HTCH 4.0000.0%Oct 6 5:00 PM EST
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To: Hectorite who wrote (1451)1/23/2000 12:39:00 PM
From: Z Analyzer  Read Replies (1) of 1487
 
Just a few comments on HTCH.
-With tech stocks now selling at average p/e's of 50, when things do improve, there's alot of room for upside.
-The TSA as industry standard thesis has not yet been disproven but is clearly not yet needed.
-Two of HTCH's largest TSA customers, QNTM and MXTR are aerial density leaders hurting HTCH business.
-Is the lead of true wireless over SEG's flex partly due to suspension differences?
-I believe it is IBM fujisawa? that is about to transtion to wireless. Hopefully, HTCH TSA gets this business vs. NHK. I think this may be IBM's source of lower end high end drives which is where the growth seems to be.

All that aside, there is no doubt that HTCH management's optimism got to them and they screwed up. Hopefully they learned. Still HTCH will be in good position if computers, handheld devices with disks and A/V proliferate as forecast. If the HTCH franchise is secure eventually those with vision will see HTCH as a very cheap play on the digital future.
-Keep in mind that the spectacular increases in arial densty may hurt current business but extends the life of the DD vs. flash and is absolutely necessary to open up the opportunities in digital VCR and disks in hand held devices. Presently, its a curse. Long run, its absolutely for the best. -Z
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