Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (16039)	1/23/2000 2:42:00 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) of 54805

It will be interesting to see what happens with Cisco now that we are entering the fiber optic tornado. NT has a big, big lead at this point in time (they've won something like 40+ of the top 50+ fiber build out deals in the world this past year).. plus years of experience and customer contacts. This battle will be different than the network area Cisco has dominated and Cisco has stated they won't make another major move into this area for another year. I had to pick one company (for right now) so I'm going with Norty (I have JDSU as my #1 holding but that's a different sector of the giant market of fiber optics). I feel Cisco's core markets (routers) are aging and Norty has launched a broadside at CSCO's bread and butter - routers - by a) cutting their prices in half causing Cisco to match prices in some fronts and b) NT launched a software router product in partnership with Intel, MS and 75 + other companies, again possibly severely reducing Cisco's margins in this key market. But no doubt about it... Cisco is definitely a gorilla among gorilla's but this is going to be one heck of a war between Norty and Cisco. LU has already fallen behind -perhaps critically if Norty has taken too much fiber optic market share from them (Norty's financials should expand on this more next week) for them to recover until we come to the next tornado within a tornado in the fiber play that is unfolding. No Norty is not a gorilla. Not even a king yet. A very strong prince that is shaking the existing king - LU - to it's roots. My guess is that Norty will eventually be the Fiber optic king with JDSU being the fiber optic component manufacture king. Cisco will dominate the last mile solutions - with QCOM and ?? - while still controlling a strangle hold on their existing 16+ markets. I think Norty and JDSU are winning the fiber optic war right now though. Your thoughts? Speaking of Cisco.. any thoughts on Cisco vs. companies like Foundry (FDRY)?

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