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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.810

-4.8%

Nov 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3390)	1/23/2000 4:22:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 34857

It's not the data transfer speed alone that determines what impact a new mobile data technology has on the future profits of manufacturers. I know you hate when I do this Tero....but I agree with you <g>. The success of i-mode by a bandwidth constrained operator (NTT) has led me to the obvious conclusion that content will drive sub growth as much as bandwidth. I think that mobile market will divide into two distinct groups. 1) The laptop/large PDA market will demand high bandwidth services since they will be able to access web pages in the original HTML. It's likely that business users will begin to drive the expansion of this market. The question will be how much do services like this cost? If HDR works as advertised....this market will take off and really push GSM operators to upgrade their bandwidth (eg 3G). 2) The traditional cell phone/small PDA's will need some sort of translation to allow a more user-friendly formatting. WAP seems to be the most likely winner....but these types of services dont need a lot of bandwidth. Unless a handset manufacturer thinks up a way to present HTML pages in a small display, I'm not sure how much bandwidth we will need. The other possability is if video phone calls take off....but I dont know how likely this will be to happen. I think one of the key things to watch over the next year or so is how well CDMA providers start to utilize data offerings. Sprint PCS has a good start but they need to expand the offerings that are available and start bringing down the price of web surfing on a laptop. Also the Korean/Japan launches of 64kpbs need to be supplemented by content offerings which will push sub growth.... Slacker

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