Eric, Re: Based on the price history for the previous cycles, LSI stock price will lead the market peak by 12-18 months. Therefore,
we have another year to 18 months before LSI sees its cycle highs.
Sounds good to me. Maybe it's better. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist, but I'm wondering when semis will stop being cyclical. After all, will the need for chips ever (within a reasonable timeframe) stop increasing? No, but have to figure out what caused the big downturns in the past. Overproduction of DRAMs, and then the Asian flu that extended the trough for another year?
Maybe the chip industry is different now, in that there are enough American companies that make chips with a lot of IP in them (by coincidence, IP can be intellectual property, and Internet Protocol). The latter is causing a lot of the former, i.e., need for many part types and high volume of chips to go into network, broadband and wireless. I think all those companies are US. Then, in the microprocessor area, all of Intel's competitors are American. Bottom line is that we might not have any overproduction/dumping scenarios for a long time. DRAM can of course return to the same old problems, but why should that affect the whole industry?
Tony |
