Brian, it's refreshing to find an IDC shareholder who is willing to discuss issues surrounding IDC in a mature manner. I especially appreciate the fact that you are able to acknowledge each issue I raised even if it was by saying that you do not have the answer. It is a big improvement over those who ignore the difficult questions preferring to focus on more encouraging facts or opinions and acting as if the positives negate any concerns that are left un-addressed.
What is difficult to disregard is the fact that Nokia is working closely with IDC. When an international powerhouse has a non-trivial relationship with a relative unknown, good things can happen.
I agree. IDC appears to be much better positioned because of this relationship with Nokia. An acquaintance has been in contact with Nokia in an attempt to determine what kind of relationship this is but Nokia IR has declined to elaborate on the scanty details that have already been published. So all we can do is speculate.
In the best case scenario, IDC is developing and testing W-CDMA specs for Nokia and will strengthen their IPR and their ability to collect significant royalties from W-CDMA. IMHO, this is unlikely since we already know that Nokia has signed-off on any possible IPR that may come out of this relationship. I don't think they would do that if they were funding the development effort.
In another scenario, Nokia is paying IDC to test the real-world performance of multiple, slightly different 3G CDMA implementations, thus helping Nokia decide the path to take. This scenario seems likely since IDC would have much of what they needed to perform these tests. Additionally, it would make more sense that Nokia had signed-off on any IPR that may arise out of the testing since the product Nokia is paying for is test-results. This scenario benefits IDC in that it provides some interim revenues to help tie them over until 3G is more mature and also gives IDC the opportunity to potentially steer Nokia toward solutions that require IDC IPR. Of course Nokia probably has safeguards in place to prevent the results from being biased. Perhaps the testing is being directed by one or more Nokia engineers.
I can't think of other scenarios right now but in all cases it would seem to be a matter of convenience for Nokia and IDC. I say this because Nokia has been undergoing rapid growth and it is always hard to hire enough quality engineers that are versed in the latest technologies. By using IDC's engineers (and facilities), and engineers that are available in IDC's location but unwilling to move to Nokia locations, Nokia can keep their engineers and facilities free to work on other projects. An added benefit is when the relationship is ended and 3G standards are firmed up, Nokia will not have lay off engineers and provide severance packages, etc. So while this relationship is a net positive for IDC, I would also caution against reading more into it than there is.
Other sincere opinions are welcome.
Sincerely, Bux
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